All trading involves risk.
All trading involves risk.
As the final week of the month draws to a close, Aussie bulls are clearly licking their wounds. The Australian dollar has been the worst-performing over the month, week, and day so far as the currency faces a “perfect storm” of bearish developments...
Previously we’d flagged AUD/JPY’s potential for a 300-point drop after it broke out of a 5-month range. Although we’ve yet to see the downside persist, recent price action puts this potential back in the spotlight.
The breakout to an 11-month high has been seen with increasingly bullish momentum, which paves the way for further gains. That doesn't mean it won’t mean revert first though.
Since the 0.9983 high, USD/CHF has printed its worst 10-day run since February. And with extreme positioning of the US dollar and Swiss franc, we think it has the potential to extend losses.
USD/JPY saw a bullish reversal this week to break out of its falling wedge pattern - bulls may now look to target 1.1200 or 1.1300 next
Price action on USD/JPY has been choppy of late, although yesterday’s break higher could pave the way for further gains.
Another day, another leadership challenge for Australia’s PM Malcolm Turnbull, leaving AUD crosses worse for wear.
Earlier this month, the US Dollar Index broke out to a fresh 14-month high, reaching a peak near 97.00 midway through last week before turning lower in the latter half of the week. Despite the dip over the last couple of days, the bullish trend in the greenback writ large remains well intact, but one pair has been stubbornly lagging.
A weaker USD has allowed NZD to climb from multi-year lows ahead of US-China trade talks tomorrow. Yet with a dominant bearish trend and resistance cluster close by, we’re seeking a rejection at resistance to signal momentum has realigned with the dominant trend.
USD/CAD is pulling back off the top of its near-term bearish channel after hotter-than-expected CA CPI - key support sits in the 1.2960-1.3000 zone.
Despite the sharp fall from the highs, AUDNZD’s structure remains favourable to bulls as they gather above a cluster of support levels.
EUR/CHF has been hit hard recently on Eurozone bond fears and waning risk appetite.
With AUD/JPY being a barometer of risk for FX, it’s been no major surprise to see the cross slump alongside investor sentiment as the Turkish crisis unfolded. But with it testing the lower bound of a 5-month range, this could be the beginning of the next leg lower.
It’s been a bad year to be a gold bug: after moving up from $1300 to $1360 through the month of January, gold has dropped sharply through Q2 and Q3 to date, dropping below $1200 as of writing.
The bearish trend on GBP/CHF goes from strength to strength but, with multiple signs of over-extension and 8 sessions without a daily close higher, the risks of a bounce is increasing.
EUR/USD has broken down to fresh yearly lows amidst concerns about exposure to Turkey - will bears look to target 1.12 next?
The Summer months can be boring in financial markets, but this hasn't been the case in GBP/USD.
Higher inflation expectations helped cap AUD/NZD’s rally ahead of tonight’s RBNZ meeting. But with the trend favouring further upside, it could be too soon to write off another push higher just yet.
Heading into this year there was a convincing case for a dollar rally. After all, the world’s reserve currency had fallen sharply against most of its major rivals in 2017 as the luster of the pro-dollar “Trump Trade” wore off and the realities of governing set in.
With less than 48hrs until the RBNZ meeting, NZD remains pressured from trade concerns and soft domestic data. And with recent price action rejecting pivotal resistance, we're looking for an eventual break to new lows for the year.
AUD/USD's quiet trade over the last two months could finally pick up as the longer-term bearish channel "catches up" with price ahead of a week featuring an RBA meeting and US CPI.
In Tuesday’s JPY report we suggested a break above 111.54 assumes a run towards the 113.17/39 highs. With Tuesday’s break higher, we retain this bias.
Despite making a run for this year’s high, price action has left warning signs that it is getting tough at the top.