All trading involves risk.
All trading involves risk.
NZD/USD is consolidating near some critical technical levels ahead of a big week for economic data
As we head towards the long weekend, price action has proven to be fickle due to end of month/quarter flows. But that doesn’t mean opportunities won’t be around the corner.
The aussie has hit a new low for the year today as the risk-off environment pervades the market once more. With commodities struggling, led by a near 20% decline in iron ore prices this month, there …
It’s almost as if President Trump was tempting fate when he tweeted "great news"” about the rebound in the US stock market as, within 24hrs US markets were on the back ropes again.
When it comes to the $5.3T/day foreign exchange market, speculators account for a clear majority of daily volume, but occasionally, demand from actual users can still have a major influence on the market....
After noting the US dollar index was showing signs of compression last week, we’ve been on the lookout for volatility to broadly hit the USD since. And with WTI and Gold testing highs and Euro breaking out of compression, we suspect the next phase of volatility is underway for markets.
GBP/CAD has been the strongest performer among Sterling crosses this past month, so after a minor retracement from the highs we’re seeking bullish setups on the pair. We also take a look at the FX calendar for the week ahead.
The Japanese yen and Swiss franc remained the favoured currencies today and it is interesting to note that USD/JPY made little effort to reclaim the 105 handle after effortlessly breaking beneath it yesterday. And with the first steps of a trade war now in place, we await the reaction from European and US trading floors.
With the bearish trend remaining far from challenged on the US dollar index (DXY), we note that volatility is showing signs of picking up. And with Trump due to announce fresh tariffs later today we’re on the lookout for the next round of range expansion.
USD/CAD uptrend has paused at key structural levels. With ongoing trade issues, the FOMC and key Canadian data looming large, we take a technical look at this major.
Through the first three weeks of the month, the British pound has been the strongest major currency, boosted by a yesterday’s breakthrough in the negotiations around a Brexit transition deal.
Friday's break above 1.80 takes GBP/AUD to its' highest level since the days following Brexit. With UK CPI and BoE's meeting making up just some of the data flow specific to GBP/AUD, the potential for volatility to remain could be high.
It’s been another turbulent week in the FX space with potential trade wars, moves in the Canadian dollar and Japanese yen accounting towards the bulk of the hype. But if you missed the moves, focus on where volatility may spring next. And one such pair we’re closely watching for this very reason is EUR/CHF.
Friday’s jobs report showed a disappointing 0.1% m/m (2.6% y/y) increase in average hourly earnings, and that slowdown in price pressures was also seen in the US CPI report earlier this week, which printed at just 0.2% m/m. So far at least, it’s looking like January’s data was yet another “false dawn” for price pressures.
In the same way it can take a long time to turn a large ship, the same can be said for a change of long-term trend. And if clues on the AUD/JPY weekly chart are anything to go by, we may need to hold into our hats as bearish momentum has been picking up after a multi-month turnaround.
Wise-cracking Phil Hammond delivered his Spring Statement with a more optimistic outlook on the economy noting that there is “a light at the end of the tunnel” for the UK’s finances, though Brexit …
With the rate at which Canadian Dollars have been thrown overboard recently, you’d be forgiven for thinking they were on fire. As for JPY, the annual repatriation of the Yen and bouts of risk-off have helped it remain the strongest major this year. Place these two contrasting themes together and what you’re left with is the CAD/JPY chart.
Following its best week in 9 months amid improved risk sentiment, we explore the potential for further gains on AUD/CHF.
In all, today’s jobs report signals more of the same for the US jobs market: the absolute quantity of jobs continues to grow for going on seven and a half years, but the quality of those jobs has not seen a commensurate improvement.
Since bottoming in February 2017, EURNZD has produced a bullish trend structure overall. Yet since falling 5.5% from the December high it has appeared a little hesitant to re-test it. That said, we think pressure could be building for bullish momentum to return.
BOC hold their second policy meeting of the year tomorrow, after having raised for the third time this cycle in January’s meeting. Yet whilst there has been speculation they may raise again in April, concerns surrounding NAFTA and Trump’s surprise steel and aluminium tariffs could outweigh any optimism in tomorrow’s meeting.
The Japanese Yen remains the strongest G10 currency this year, with Trump’s trade war and BOJ’s tightening hints only adding to Yen inflows. With AUDJPY having tested the 81.57 EU referendum high on Friday, we have a close eye on this pivotal level as a break beneath it assumes the resumption of its downtrend.
The USD has spent the best part of the week supported by Powell’s testimony. Yet it now seems that, at least where USD strength is concerned, what Powell giveth, Trump can taketh away.
The Japanese Yen has been the strongest G10 performer this year and the recent surge of Yen demand suggests there could be more gains ahead.